Kathmandu. As the trade war between the US and the rest of the world begins, economists have expressed concern that the risk of a global recession increases in 2025. Economists in 50 countries have expressed concern that US President Donald Trump’s trade policy will worsen the business environment and increase customs duties will shrink trade activity due to production cuts.
When asked about the risk of a global recession this year, 101 out of 167 analysts responded that the risk was ‘high’ or ‘very high’. Similarly, 66 people said that the risk is ‘low’ and four people are ‘very low’.
Many economic analysts surveyed by Bloomberg said Us President Donald Trump’s retaliatory taxes (though suspended for 90 days) have damaged business confidence. As a result, the risk of recession has increased this year.
The lack of initiative to “re-accelerate” global trade, especially the decision related to the selection of productive resources on imports, has had a major impact. As a result, assets worth billions of dollars in global stock market capitalization have declined. U.S. investor confidence in the dollar is weakening.
“It’s hard to be optimistic about growth in this environment,” said Timothy Graf, chief strategist for Europe, the Middle East and Africa at research firm State Street. Even if all tariffs are removed today, it will be difficult to overcome the credibility damage caused by Trump’s policies to bilateral, multilateral trade and defense agreements.
The survey has lowered the global economic growth forecast for 2025. In a January survey, the same economists said growth could be 3 percent. This time it has been reduced to 2.7 percent. However, the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) forecast is slightly higher – they predict an increase of 2.8 percent. Growth forecasts for 28 of the 48 economies surveyed have been reduced.
The economies of China and Russia are expected to be relatively good. Survey participants believe that China’s growth could be 4.5 percent and Russia’s 1.7 percent. Mexico and Canada, on the other hand, will see growth drop to 2.0 and 1.2 percent, respectively, the most in recent months.
After the Russo-Ukraine war, high global inflation was largely controlled by raising policy interest rates. But now, higher tariffs have created new inflationary pressures.
The survey found that major central banks are projected to fail to meet their inflation this year.
The impact of Trump’s trade policy has created long-term uncertainty not only on the US domestic economy but also on the global economic system, according to experts. As a result, the pressure will continue in the future. Now the world will have to wait for some more time to see how to address this aggressive leader, that is, how it can create a stable trade policy. agency
